Stanley Cup Playoffs: New York Islanders versus Florida Panthers series preview
Will the Florida Panthers get revenge on the New York Islanders for 2016 in their Stanley Cup Playoffs series?
For the first time since the 2016 postseason, the Florida Panthers are back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They’ll be playing a familiar foe in the play-in round when they square off against the New York Islanders. Yes, the same team that beat them in 2016.
However, this time around, the two teams are a bit different. The Islanders finished the regular season as the seventh seed while the Panthers needed the expanded postseason of 24 teams in order to get in as the 10th seed.
This is a series between two flawed, but talented, teams. Neither team has played since mid-March, so you might forget how they’ve gotten to this point. Here’s a quick refresher course for both teams.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
After surprising everyone last season by not just making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but also sweeping the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, nobody was going to get caught off guard by the Isles. They nearly signed Artemi Panarin but had to watch the cross-town New York Rangers sign him instead.
On paper, their 35-23-10 record looks pretty good. But some context is necessary. They started the season 16-3-1, which included a 10-game winning streak and another five-game winning streak.
Since their five-game winning streak ended on Nov. 21, they’ve gone 19-20-9. The Isles made a huge move at the trade deadline when they traded for Jean-Gabriel Pageau and immediately signed him to a multi-year extension. Was that move enough to give them a spark? Only time will tell.
FLORIDA PANTHERS
The history of the Panthers has been defined by mediocrity. In 26 seasons, this is just the sixth time they’ve played past the regular season. Last summer, the Panthers made some huge changes to try to change the culture. First, they hired Joel Quenneville to be their head coach. Next, they signed goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, defenseman Anton Stralman, forward Brett Connolly, and forward Noel Acciari.
While their additions didn’t fix their huge issues, they masked them enough to be able to sneak into the playoffs. The Panthers are looking to advance past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since their magical run to the Stanley Cup Final in 1996.
Matchups
How do these two teams matchup against each other? Let’s break it down by position.
Forwards
The Islanders are led by Mathew Barzal, who is one of the most lethally skilled players in the league with 60 points in 68 games this season. He won the Fastest Skater Competition at his first NHL All-Star Skills Competition, beating two-time reigning champion Connor McDavid.
Brock Nelson quietly had a very strong year, tieing his career-high in goals with 26 and posting a career-high with 54. Team captain Anders Lee had a down year as far as production (20 goals and 43 points in 68 games), but posted outstanding underlying stats. From a possession standpoint, Jordan Eberle was their most effective forward.
Josh Bailey finished the season with 43 points in 68 games. Anthony Beauvillier was inconsistent at times, but had his best year as a pro with 38 points in 68 games. Derick Brassard signed a cheap deal last summer and proved to be worth it, as he put up 32 points in 66 games.
The Islanders bottom six doesn’t produce much, but they are strong defensively. This especially rings true for Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin, and Cal Clutterbuck.
On the other side of the ice, the Panthers are led by an impressive duo of forwards in Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Barkov had his fifth straight season with at least 20 goals and his third straight season with at least 60 points, putting up 62 points in 68 games. He also averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per game for the third straight season. Considering the tough minutes Barkov played, his underlying stats were pretty good.
Huberdeau followed up his breakout season in 2018-19 with another impressive year, as he put up 23 goals and 55 assists for 78 points in 69 games. He actually had more points per game this season (1.13) than last season (1.12). Huberdeau posted solid underlying numbers as well. Evgenii Dadonov had another quietly solid season for the Panthers with 25 goals and 47 points. Mike Hoffman did the same with 29 goals and 59 points.
Brett Connolly proved his numbers in Washington weren’t a fluke with 33 points in 69 games despite playing in a limited role and Noel Acciari had a goals to assists ratio (20 to 7) that you’d love to see from a Cy Young contender.
Advantage: Panthers. I like their bottom six more than the Islanders.
Defensemen
The Islanders bread and butter is their defense. Head coach Barry Trotz is famous for having defensively strong teams and the Isles are no different. Ryan Pulock will be getting a nice raise this season after he emerged as arguably the Isles’ best defenseman. Devon Toews is quietly a pretty darn good top-four defenseman and Nick Leddy had a decent season.
Adam Pelech suffered an injury that cost him most of his season, but the Islanders will be getting him back, which is great news for them. Noah Dobson got more playing time as the season went along and it appears Trotz finally trusts him, albeit only in a third-pairing role. It’ll be interesting to see who sits between Scott Mayfield, Dobson, Andy Greene, and Johnny Boychuk. That’s a really nice problem to have.
Last season, the Panthers were a disaster in their own zone. This season, they weren’t too much better, but they did show some noticeable improvement. Keith Yandle continues to be durable and continues to put up solid numbers (45 points in 69 games), though his previously strong underlying numbers have been declining as of late.
Aaron Ekblad posted outstanding possession numbers and also had 41 points in 67 games. It appears he’s over his concussion issues for the time being, which is wonderful to see because he’s a great player. MacKenzie Weegar had the best 5v5 relative expected goals for percentage on the Panthers in a top-four role. Josh Brown put up solid numbers in a third-pairing role. However, Michael Matheson and Anton Stralman both struggled immensely.
Advantage: Islanders
Goaltending
The Islanders have a huge advantage here. Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss weren’t able to do what Robin Lehner did, but they were still pretty darn good. However, both struggled after the All-Star break. Maybe the hiatus was a good thing for them.
I certainly trust both Varlamov and Greiss more than I trust Sergei Bobrovsky at this point. Bobrovsky’s numbers have been declining for three straight years. He’s capable of stealing games, but this season, Bob hasn’t looked anything like a goalie who has won two Norris Trophies.
Advantage: Islanders
Special Teams
The Panthers have a better PP, but the Islanders have a better PK. I trust Florida’s PK slightly more than I trust the Isles’ PP, so the advantage goes to Florida.
Series Prediction
This is an interesting series because the two teams have conflicting strengths. The series will be determined by which team can best take advantage of the other’s weaknesses. Pelech getting back for the Islanders is huge and it should help fix the Isles’ defensive issues that were beginning to show when the season ended in mid-March.
However, I like the Panthers to win in five games. Their offense is better than the Islanders and I’m still not sold the Isles can score enough to keep up with a team like Florida, even though the Panthers have a mediocre defense.
My gut tells me Bobrovsky’s going to have a huge series. The hiatus has given him the chance to clear his head. In my opinion, most of the problems he had this season were in his head. He beat himself up and he was trying to adjust to a new defensive system than the one he had with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Last year’s postseason proves Bobrovsky can step up. I think he will this year.
Next. Play-in Round Predictions. dark
Florida’s bottom six can outscore New York’s bottom six. Honestly, I think that’s going to be the difference in this series. We all know the Panthers and Islanders’ top two lines will show up. But Florida has better depth, so I think they inch out a very close series win over the Isles to get revenge for 2016.