2016 Stanley Cup Odds: Good, Bad, and Ugly

Jun 15, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) celebrates with the Stanley Cup after defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in game six of the 2015 Stanley Cup Final at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Less than a day after the Chicago Blackhawks claimed their third Stanley Cup in six seasons, Bovada set its 2016 Stanley Cup odds.  To no one’s surprise, the Blackhawks have the best odds at 7/1, just ahead of the New York Rangers at 8/1.  At the bottom of the pack are the Carolina Hurricanes, Buffalo Sabres, and Arizona Coyotes (haven’t they suffered enough lately?) at 100/1.  At this point, prior to the draft and free agency, it’s difficult to quibble with the teams at either end of the spectrum.

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But in between?  Oh, there is plenty of intrigue to go around.  And more importantly, plenty of good and sucker bets to stay away from.

So here at Too Many Men on the Site, we have reviewed the 2016 Stanley Cup odds and offer our suggestions on which teams’ odds look tempting, and which teams’ odds scream “stay away” prior to off-season activity.  Once the draft and more impactful, free agency begins, these odds will change dramatically, so lock them in now.

(Note, gambling is probably not legal wherever you’re reading this, so this is merely for fun…unless of course you “know a guy who knows a guy.”  Then feel free to wager away.)

April 8, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Dallas Stars celebrate the 4-0 victory against Anaheim Ducks following the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Stars

2016 Stanley Cup Odds: 66/1

Man, I know they aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut with a stellar goaltender (starter Kari Lehtonen posted a .903 save percentage and 2.94 goals against average this season), but the Stars finished the season at 41-31-10, only seven points out of the final wild card spot.  They finished second in the league in scoring at 3.13 goals a game and are led by Art Ross winner Jamie Benn and all-star Tyler Seguin.  Despite missing 11 games due to injuries, Seguin tallied 37 goals and there is no reason to expect the duo, along with center Jason Spezza, won’t be one of most dangerous lines in hockey again next season.

There are issues on defense, but with just a shade under $56 million committed in salaries for next season, the Stars will have plenty of room to maneuver to obtain help on defense.  Whether coach Lindy Ruff is the right person for the job to lead this team deep into the playoffs is another question, but on paper, they have pieces capable to win a title.

Dallas clearly isn’t a favorite to win the Stanley Cup.  But even in a difficult division, the possible roster overhaul in St. Louis and Chicago could severely weaken the division and give Dallas the opportunity to sneak into the playoffs.  And if there is anything we’ve learned over the past several years, you just need to get in.  With the trio of Benn, Seguin, and Spezza leading the way, would you bet against them in a playoff series?

Apr 11, 2015; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Nail Yakupov (10) celebrates his goal against Vancouver Canucks goaltender Ryan Miller (30) (not pictured) during the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Edmonton Oilers

2016 Stanley Cup Odds: 33/1

If Stanley Cup victories were based off a random lottery, Edmonton would be the odds-on favorite to start another dynasty.  But on the ice, where the games are actually played, the only word I can use to describe the incredibly favorable odds for an Oilers’ title is “ridiculous.”

Yes, they have a new coach in Todd McLellan who will be a significant upgrade over recent Oiler head coaches.  And yes, they did “earn” the first pick in the draft again this season, all but assuring that we’ll be throwing a pity-party for Connor McDavid for the next decade as he’s stuck in Edmonton.  But they don’t do anything well…

They were 26th in goals scored per game and last in goals allowed per game.  They stunk on special teams (19th on the power play, 28th on the penalty kill.)  They don’t have a reliable goaltender and their blue line is a “work in progress” to put it nicely.

There are rumors they are interested in the Rangers’ Cam Talbot.  Color me “skeptical,” but I have a hard time believing the 27-year old career backup will survive behind a dismal Oilers’ defense.  However, at least it’s a start to show improvement, even if it should just be the tip of the iceberg.

But, they’ll have Connor McDavid, and Bovada figured this was enough to be middle of the pack with odds to win.  McDavid may be special, but even Sidney Crosby’s Penguins struggled in his rookie season, finishing with the second worst record in the league.  Unless Connor McDavid comes equipped with his clone-equivalent in net and on defense, don’t expect the Oilers to finish anywhere close to the playoffs, let alone a Stanley Cup.  Don’t fret Oiler fans, I’m sure you’ll just land another franchise player next draft.

Apr 24, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) celebrates with teammates after his goal against the Minnesota Wild during the first period in game five of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Blues

2016 Stanley Cup Odds: 12/1

Few teams can rival the regular season success the Blues have enjoyed in recent memory.  They finished first in the Central Division with 109 points, tied for tops in the Western Conference.  But in typical St. Louis Blues’ fashion, regular season success did not equate to playoff success, and the Blues failed to reach the second round of the playoffs, an area they have only experienced once since 2002.

There is plenty of talent on the roster including Vladimir Tarasenko, David Backes, T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen, and Jaden Schwartz.  They led the charge up front and helped the team to the fifth best offense in the game.  On defense, Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk helped pace a unit that allowed the fourth fewest goals in the league.  Goaltenders Brian Elliot and Jake Allen are solid in net, even if they’ll likely never win a Vezina.

But come playoff time, the team melts faster than an ice cream cone on a hot, summer day.  Tarasenko did his thing these playoffs, scoring six goals in six games.  Outside of him, the rest of the offense dried up and continued a disturbing pattern amongst many of the players who are counted on to lead the team.

There has already been rumblings of roster overhaul for the Blues this summer, with Oshie, Patrik Berglund, and Steen, amongst others, who may be on the move (of course the rumor is they have interest in Rick Nash, which if you’re looking for playoff prowess, makes zero sense, but whatever…I can’t fix stupid here.)  I don’t think the Blues will tear the roster down, but I think they will be active this summer and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a number of new faces in the lineup come October.  Roster turnover, and the grating style of coach Ken Hitchcock leads me to believe that will be a season of significant turmoil in St. Louis, and surely one that will not end with a Stanley Cup victory.

Apr 8, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie James Reimer (34) watches the puck as Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner (not pictured) scores a goal in the first period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs

2016 Stanley Cup Odds: 66/1

We’ll end our piece with the team that should probably have the worst odds to win a title: the Leafs. This isn’t to pile on Toronto because Lord knows the team has received plenty of negative recognition already. But there are just so many holes in this roster and so many whispers of trades that the situation is just toxic.  Want Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf or Tyler Bozak?  Just call Brendan Shanahan and make an offer…any offer, please.

Yes, Mike Babcock is a top coach and should be able to coax the talent on the roster to be better than what they should.  Unfortunately for the Leafs, Mike Babcock isn’t a miracle worker and this team will be hard-pressed to finish outside the bottom three this season.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing for the rebuilding Leafs, but for any sucker willing to plunk any cash down on the Leafs to win a title, please, don’t.  There are a million other ways to better spend your money.

Put it this way: you could add a couple of zeroes to those odds and I still wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot pole.  So, congrats Leafs.  You’ve already achieved the biggest upset of the season by not having the worst 2016 Stanley Cup odds.

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